We’re not even going to approach the math involved in this. With the final round of Jägermeister Cup group games coming up this weekend, it’s time to take a look at who has a chance to make it into the knockout rounds. As should always be the case in this type of competition, it’s near-total chaos.
First, you need to know that the draw for the first round of the knockout phase was made last Friday. It may seem odd to do that ahead of the last round of group games but it does add a little extra spice to the proceedings.
There is a catch to the draw as well. There are 6 groups in the competition and 8 teams advance to the knockout, all 6 group winners and 2 wild cards. That therefore means that 2 group winners start the knockout with a road game along with the wild cards. The groups that lost out in the draw were #1 and #3. The Legion is of course in Group 3, so however well the team does this weekend against Forward Madison, it cannot host a first round game. The Group 3 winner (currently Indy Eleven) will face the Group 6 winner (currently the Tampa Bay Rowdies). Wild Card 1 will face the Group 4 winner (currently Rhode Island). Wild Card 2 will face the Group 2 winner (currently San Antonio). That leaves the Group 5 winner (currently Loudoun United) to host the Group 1 winner (currently the Las Vegas Lights).
As things stand, no group winners have been decided. Only Group 3 could have been; if Indy or the Legion had won the head-to-head game outright rather than on penalties, that would have made the winner the first team to clinch. It didn’t happen, so everything is a mess.
Here’s another wrinkle: 2 teams have already completed their group games. Those are Las Vegas and Phoenix Rising. Phoenix played their final game this past weekend, drawing with El Paso Locomotive 2-2 and winning the shootout 7-6. That eliminated El Paso from advancement and moved Phoenix up into the first wild card spot, kicking the Legion into 9th in the overall standings. The other wild card spot is held by Hartford Athletic.
Yet another schedule-driven wrinkle: Texoma FC of League One has only played 2 group games and will play Wednesday and Saturday. Both games are on the road: at Union Omaha and at the Colorado Springs Switchbacks. If Texoma fails to win outright Wednesday, they will be eliminated.
As of right now, 23 of the 38 teams are still alive. Some of the eliminations are a bit surprising: FC Tulsa, the Charleston Battery, North Carolina and the Pittsburgh Riverhounds are all out. 5 League One teams are still in it.
Of those 23 teams, 12 have final games against other teams still alive. With 2 already finished, that leaves just 9 playing teams already out.
The top 9 teams in the competition all have 7 or more points. That is therefore the minimum target. There are different tiebreaker rules for the group winners and wild cards (since the latter will almost certainly come from different groups). Phoenix is done at 7 points and is therefore the most vulnerable, although the Rising has scored a competition-high 10 goals, which is the second wild-card tiebreaker and puts them in a good position to hold on; no one below them has scored more than 7 goals.
Of the top 9, 2 teams face each other in the final round: Rhode Island and Hartford. Rhode Island is at the top of the overall table with 9 points and is complete control of its destiny. Hartford of course has to win, and probably outright. If so, they take the group and Rhode Island could be out.
For the Legion it’s simple: an outright win clinches a knockout spot. A shootout win would get a wild card at best. That would get the team to 9 points and there are 6 teams behind the Legion who can get that many. A shootout loss puts the Legion on 8 points and there are 2 more teams who can reach that number. The Legion has scored only 6 goals to date and would not be in a strong position to win a tiebreaker.
Since the first round will be on the road regardless, it’s almost immaterial what Indy does. They play at home against the eliminated Tulsa but need a win of either kind to guarantee winning the group. If they don’t and the Legion wins in regulation, the Legion takes the group.
Unlike the World Cup, in which all final group games are played at the same time, this weekend’s schedule is staggered as in any other week. In addition to the game Wednesday, there is one game Friday evening, although it just happens to involve 2 teams already eliminated (Portland Hearts of Pine and Charleston). Saturday’s games kick off at various times from 3:00pm CT to 10:00pm CT. The Legion kicks off at 7:00pm, an hour after Indy kicks off, so by half-time will have a good idea of what needs to be accomplished.
To conclude, here’s a table of the teams still alive in the competition showing what they can do to potentially advance (adapted from data provided by the USL Championship website).
| Club | Group | W | L | T | SOW | Pts | Max | GF | GA | GD | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhode Island FC* | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 7 | v. Hartford |
| Las Vegas Lights* | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 1 | |
| San Antonio FC* | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 4 | v. New Mexico |
| Indy Eleven* | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 5 | v. Tulsa |
| Loudoun United* | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 2 | @ North Carolina |
| Phoenix Rising | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 0 | |
| Tampa Bay Rowdies* | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | @ Charleston |
| Hartford Athletic | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | @ Rhode Island |
| Birmingham Legion | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 3 | v. Madison |
| New Mexico United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 2 | @ San Antonio |
| Louisville City | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 3 | @ Lexington |
| Sacramento Republic | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 4 | @ Spokane |
| Charlotte Independence | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 1 | v. Richmond |
| Monterey Bay FC | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 1 | @ AV Alta |
| Greenville Triumph | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | v. Naples |
| The Miami FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 7 | -1 | v. South Georgia |
| Detroit City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 6 | -1 | v. Westchester |
| South Georgia Tormenta | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 0 | @ Miami |
| Oakland Roots | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 0 | v. Orange County |
| Lexington SC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | v. Louisville |
| Colorado Springs Switchbacks | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 4 | -1 | v. Texoma |
| Forward Madison | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 5 | -3 | @ Birmingham |
| Texoma FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 5 | -1 | @ Omaha, @ Colorado Springs |
* Denotes current group leader.
Thick line indicates the 8 qualifying teams.
Bold face indicates team with no remaining games.
Colored cells indicate teams playing against each other.
Update:
Texoma lost 1-3 to Union Omaha Wednesday evening and so are eliminated.
