Is the Legion season dead in the water? We didn’t go so far as to conclude that in our post yesterday and are clinging to whatever scraps of optimism we can find. Tomorrow is game 20 in the season, concluding the middle third of the campaign. Can the Three Sparks enter the final third on a positive note?
The most important part
The Legion played Hartford Athletic all the way back in Week 2, the game finishing 0-0 thanks in large part to some blatantly poor refereeing which, you may recall, included a ridiculous double yellow to Leo Duru (now back in England with Carlisle United of the National League). Sicne then Hartford has not performed a great deal better than the Three Sparks. They sit in 8th place in the Eastern Conference right now. They are 4 points shy of Rhode Island FC in 7th and 2 points clear of The™ Miami FC in 9th. Miami are idle this week so whatever the result tomorrow (6:00pm, ESPN+) Hartford’s position will not change.
The Athletic is also 7 points better than the Legion on the same number of games. This then is a critical opportunity not only to revive some confidence but also to close the gap. It’s an archetypal 6-pointer. The same is in fact true of 9 of the remaining 10 games after this one; there remains only one non-conference game on the schedule (the rescheduled game against New Mexico United).
Hartford were on a bye last week, and who knows these days whether that is an advantage or a hindrance. Their last game before that was August 15th, a 2-1 home win over Miami. That was their first win in 8 games since a shock 1-0 victory over the Tampa Bay Rowdies. In the 7-game winless streak they scored just 4 times. In fact, scoring is not exactly the team’s forte. They have just 15 goals in 19 games, by 3 goals the worst in the league. On the other hand they are second-best in the league in goals allowed with just 18. In 13 of their league games at least 1 team has failed to score and 6 have ended 0-0. Add 2 more in the USL Cup, one of which was again 0-0.
Both numbers are way below the xG: 26.38 and 30.39 respectively. A low-scoring game is thus very much on the cards. The Athletic’s top scorer is midfielder Barry Coffey who has 4 goals. Star striker Augi Williams has just 2.
They also have just 2 wins (out of 5) over teams currently in playoff position, the other back in May, 2-1 over Detroit City. Little surprise then that they are hovering around the playoff line and are very vulnerable.
They keep those low scores, at least at the back end, with a 3-man back line (as I talked about yesterday). Usually playing in a 3-1-4-2 formation (which converts easily to a 4-4-2) but also a 3-4-1-2, the backs are generally Britton Fischer, Jordan Scarlett and Thomas Presthus. Adrian Diz Pe also plays on the line occasionally.
So the upshot is this: the Athletic are a hard team to beat but also a hard team to lose to.
Best of the rest
Miami have played 22 games, one of 5 teams to have done so, and as noted above are on a bye this week. They currently occupy the bottom spot in our Power Rankings and are 9th in the East but everyone around them has multiple games in hand; their position is shaky at best. 2 games were played Wednesday. Both ended 2-1, El Paso Locomotive over the Pittsburgh Riverhounds and New Mexico over Lexington SC. The 2 winners stay tied atop the Western Conference (El Paso has played 3 more games though); the 2 losers saw their positions get a bit less safe. All 4 teams play again tomorrow on a full Saturday slate (no games tonight or Sunday). Here’s what to watch for:
Pittsburgh Riverhounds v. Tampa Bay Rowdies (4:00pm, ESPN+)
As if a midweek loss to a top Western team wasn’t enough the Hounds have to travel home and play the Eastern leaders on short rest. The Rowdies did suffer their 3rd loss of the season last week (fewest in the league), 0-1 to Detroit City, but I don’t think that is going to affect the outcome of this one much. Pittsburgh is currently 4th in the standings by 2 points over Louisville City, who have a game in hand…
Louisville City v. Detroit City (7:00pm, ESPN+)
…it’s not often that Lou City is a underdog at home, but that looks to be the case here. Pittsburgh’s place may be safe. Detroit are 3rd in the East, got that big win last week and are a point behind the Charleston Battery with a game in hand. Louisville has had a very ordinary season by their own high standards and got knocked sideways last week, losing 1-2 to Indy in the LIPAFC. This game is directly up against the Legion game but should be worth a replay later on.
El Paso Locomotive v. Loudoun United (8:00pm, ESPN+)
El Paso could do a big favor to the other teams chasing playoff spots in the East. They are coming off a win against a strong Eastern team in midweek and will be looking to stay on pace with New Mexico and continue their 5-game win streak. Loudoun is 3 points above the Legion but on 1 additional game. They have not scored in the last 3 games but are coming off a 0-0 draw with the aforementioned New Mexico. This is not a lock for El Paso by any means.
Phoenix Rising v. Indy Eleven (9:30pm, ESPN+)
Phoenix may be 11th in the West but they are only 3 points out of the playoffs in a very crowded field. Indy are having a very good season, especially last week. This game could be very competitive, although if the Eleven use their standard low-possession tactics they could get bombarded by the Rising attack. Moreover, Indy is next up on the road for the Three Sparks. They are 11 points ahead; losing this before a 6-pointer could be huge.
Back in the Old Country
The Blues have had a tough start to the season. Last week’s game against Bristol City ended a disappointing 2-2 draw, needing an own goal and a last-gasp penalty to get the point. Then on Tuesday the team faced Brentford in the second round of the EFL Cup. Brentford are riding high in the Premier League and proved it by thumping Birmingham City 6-1.
None of this is doing Chris Davies any favors with the fans, who are back to their frustrations of last season, or indeed with the team’s owners. Rumors are floating about that the club is looking to potentially hire Rob Edwards as a replacement. Edwards is 41 and most recently managed Wolverhampton Wanderers. He was sacked at the end of last season when the club was relegated. That was not really his fault; he was hired in November when the club was already bottom of the Premier League with just 2 points from 10 games. He was unable to get them out of the cellar. Despite that, his firing was considered a surprise. Before that, he led Luton Town to a promotion in 2023 and had Middlesbrough in the top 2 of the Championship before taking the Wolves job. Midlesbrough ended the season losing in the final of the promotion playoff. Indications are that if Davies does not win 3 of the next 5 games, the switch will be made.
Today is a good opportunity for Davies to hold on to his job, not to mention getting the team back on track. As we publish the Blues are playing at Wrexham (2:00pm, Paramount+) and have a 1-0 lead 27 minutes in. The two are on equal terms right now, both having drawn both games in league play and having scored twice (Wrexham scored once in each game). Wrexham have the home-field advantage and also did not play Tuesday, having lost to Middlesbrough in the first round.
