There were two USL Championship games played in midweek, both cross-conference games, ending 2-2 between Hartford Athletic and Orange County SC and Sacramento Republic beating Rhode Island FC 2-1. The rest of this week’s schedule is all USL Cup, closing out the group games.
As far as this writer can tell, 17 teams are already eliminated, which means 26 teams are still in the hunt for 8 playoff spots. Which in turn means there are a multitude of possibilities for advancement. Only 2 teams have won their group to date (the Colorado Springs Switchbacks and the Tampa Bay Rowdies), so 5 groups are still completely up in the air.
For any one team, though, there are only two possibilities: win your group or win the single wild card. For the teams trailing the Switchbacks and Rowdies, the wild card is the only option.
As far as the Legion is concerned, winning Group 3 means beating FC Tulsa and San Antonio FC losing to the Chattanooga Red Wolves in regulation time. The Red Wolves are bottom of the group, although they did lose only one game outright. They are 10th in League One currently, having seen a slight uptick in form. San Antonio not only lead the group but are also 2nd in the Western Conference, trailing Orange County by 3 points but with a game in hand. Obviously, the Legion needs a major spoiler effort by Chattanooga. The game also kicks off an hour later than the Legion game, so San Antonio will know by halftime what they need to do.
The wild card option is way more complex, but nearly out of reach. Excluding San Antonio, there are 12 other teams who can finish with 9 points or more (the Legion’s maximum). 5 of them have a better goal difference than the Three Sparks’ +3. Of the 12, 5 can finish with more than 9 points, though.
What it comes down to is that the Legion has to absolutely pound Tulsa and hope things go their way elsewhere. Tulsa is not technically eliminated, but with only 4 points and a 0 goal difference, their chances are microscopic…
The most important part
…which is just as well, because not only did the Legion play 2 games on very short rest last week, Tulsa ended up with the week off as their game against Sacramento had to be postponed due to weather. Which was on top of a bye week. That the visitors have little to play for helps. A little.
Tomorrow’s game (7:00pm, ESPN+) will be the only meeting between the two teams this season. They played twice last year, with the Legion winning 2-1 in the USL Cup and drawing 1-1 in league play. Both games were in Tulsa on the egregious ONEOK Field.
That was with the Scissortails on their way to the Western title and a spot in the championship game. This year’s team is not anywhere near as good, but are still performing adequately. They are 8th in the West on 19 points from 13 games (2 fewer than the Legion). They have been rather less successful in the Cup; those 4 points came from a 1-1 draw with One Knoxville (losing the shootout) and a 1-0 win over Corpus Christi FC. They lost 1-2 to San Antonio.
Despite their position in the league standings, they have only a +1 goal difference. They have scored 17, only 1 more than the Legion and have allowed 16, 3 fewer than the Legion. Like the Legion, they are underperforming their xG (20.54). 5 of the 17 goals were scored by Rémi Cabral, a French forward who joined the team from Phoenix Rising this year. He has also scored all 3 Tulsa goals in the Cup, putting him 2 goals ahead of his 2026 scoring total. No other player on the team has more than 2 goals.
Tulsa plays primarily with a 3 centerback formation, mostly a 3-4-3, sometimes adding 2 fullbacks. Given the ridiculously narrow home field (I estimate it at 70 yards wide) that is an understandable strategy. They did, however, play a 4-1-4-1 in their most recent game (3 weeks ago!), which they lost 1-2 at home to Colorado Springs.
That game was also atypical in several ways. Like Indy Eleven, Tulsa plays with relatively low possession, ∼35% in most games, but went to 44.9%. They also pile in way more crosses than usual, 19 of them (all were from open play; no corners or free kicks). Only 4 were successful but all were into the box. And only 2 of the unsuccessful crosses were not into the 18. Given the Legion’s weakness on crosses as highlighted recently by our good friend Kaylor Hodges, this could be an issue. Keeping Tulsa to a more normal volume (12 or less) will be key. With the much wider field, this should be achievable.
Looking in the opposite direction, the Legion will possibly be playing without Tyler Pasher and also needs to make decisions on who is the better option at striker, Damus or Williams. Or both, if Tyler is definitely out. Neither has exactly been lighting up the scoreboard. The Legion also needs to decide if they want to take the possession Tulsa wants to concede or force them to play to the Legion’s counter-attacking strengths. The first option is probably not great as it will allow the visitors to compress the defense, especially if they go with 3 centerbacks. Penetrating defenses is not the Legion’s strong suit. On the other hand, drawing Tulsa out and opening up that backfield may be tricky.
Best of the rest
All USL Cup games are on Saturday this week, and most of them overlap with the Legion game. Still, here are the games you need to keep an eye on.
San Antonio FC v. Chattanooga Red Wolves (8:00pm, ESPN 2)
All the signs are for a San Antonio win here as discussed above, but this is a sports event and anything can happen. A San Antonio loss makes everything much easier for the Three Sparks.
Louisville City v. Lexington SC (7:00pm, ESPN+)
That a Commonwealth Cup derby game can only happen in the Cup is outrageous, but here we are. Lou City are top of Group 4 on 8 points; Lexington are 2 points back. Louisville looks to be out of its funk and Lexington is struggling. That’s good, as a Lexington regulation win would eliminate the chance of a wild card for the Legion.
Rhode Island FC v. Brooklyn FC (6:30pm, ESPN+)
Brooklyn is another team on 6 points (in Group 5), but they were earned against League One teams. Rhody has 5 points and has been lackluster in the Cup, much as they have been in league play. Form says the home team wins; any result other than a Brooklyn regulation win works in the Legion’s favor.
El Paso Locomotive v. New Mexico United (7:00pm, ESPN+)
This matchup could be tricky for the Legion. Both Group 2 teams are on 6 points, but neither can win the group. Both have a slightly worse goal difference than the Legion, so we need this to be a very tight result. This is also one of the stronger games on the overall schedule given the positions of the two teams in the league standings.
Legion in the Lower Leagues
The season is now over for Legion WFC. WFC failed in the end to make the playoffs, finishing second in the South Central Division to Asheville City. They lost the last 2 games, including the season finale against Asheville, and ended 2nd on 19 points. Asheville City has progressed to the league semifinals, playing Vermont Green tomorrow at 6:00pm.
The 2s are dead last in their version of the South Central, with a 1-5-5 record and 1 game left to play. That will be at home tomorrow against Montgomery United (3:00pm). All in lost for the state of Alabama: Dothan United currently top the division but are tied on points with Swarm FC. Swarm have finished their season, so Dothan needs just a point from tomorrow’s home game against Apotheos (7:00pm) to advance to the playoffs. If they lose, Swarm advances.
Back in the Old Country
Birmingham City are now working on preparations for the upcoming season; the EFL Cup starts August 8th and the EFL Championship the following week. The team is currently in Portugal for preseason training and had its first friendly earlier today, beating Huddersfield Town 3-1 (no details available).
The club recently picked up defender Dael Fry on a free transfer from Middlesbrough. That follows the addition of Colombian midfielder Jhon Solis from Girona back in June. A return of goalkeeper James Beadle on a reupped loan from Brighton and Hove Albion is also being negotiated.
The team will finish up preseason with a bang: they have reached an agreement to host Barcelona at St. Andrew’s on July 31st.
