The Football Forge Power Rankings: Week 11

We're back

The Football Forge Power Rankings have been on an extended break, but are finally back. The break was the result of various personal commitments exacerbated by the need to find a cheap alternative to Microsoft Access to manage the data (at which we utterly failed. Grrr). Anyway, the rankings are back in business, but with a twist. We got the Forge Factor calculations to work at last, and after we did, we decided to tweak them again.

Now, instead of a normal Power Rankings table, what we will present is our interpretation of current form. The Forge Factor takes into account points earned (with a 33% bonus for road points), goals scored, goal difference and strength of schedule (as measured by opponent PPG and GDPG) over the most recent three games for each team. This will result in some wild swings week to week (including a huge one this week) but should be a good reflection of how well the teams are doing right now. We also calculated all this for last week, so the changes shown below are from Week 10. Enjoy!

Rank Team Previous Change Record Forge Factor Notes
1 Memphis 901 10 9 8-2-1 6.77 8 goals scored and 0 allowed in two games to extend the win streak to a league-high 4 games. And they have allowed just 1 goal over those 4 games. This Memphis team is going wild.
2 Colorado Springs Switchbacks 1 -1 8-1-0 6.52 Game against San Antonio was postponed.
3 Tampa Bay Rowdies 9 6 5-3-4 6.30 A comprehensive 3-1 win over Pittsburgh to follow last week’s 5-1 mauling of Phoenix. It looks like the Rowdies are back. And Hugh Dixon’s Hounds goal was really an own goal too.
4 San Antonio 5 1 8-2-0 5.11 Game against Colorado Springs was postponed.
5 Monterey Bay 23 18 3-7-0 4.87 Just 32.4% possession and 3 shots on target. That, plus a little luck and solid goalkeeping by Dallas Jaye was all the Union needed to shock Louisville. 2 good wins in the last 3 games and Monterey is looking like an actual soccer team.
6 Rio Grande Valley Toros 18 12 5-6-0 4.52 The Toros failed to capitalize on an early PK, then gave up a softish PK, then controlled the second half to beat the San Diego Loyal. 3 wins in the last 5 games is moving them up the standings.
7 Indy Eleven 7 0 5-3-2 4.20 The 2-0 win over the Baby Bulls was much tighter than the scoreline suggests, but Indy have now won 5 of their last 6 against mostly weaker opposition.
8 Orange County 4 -4 3-3-4 4.04 OC split the points with El Paso in a 2-2 game neither could really afford to lose and neither deserved to win. But the champions remain mired well below the playoff line.
9 The Miami FC 11 2 5-4-3 3.98 After a tough home point against Detroit City, Miami then rolled to a 4-0 win in Charleston. A solid side, but entirely unpredictable on any given day.
10 Detroit City 17 7 7-2-3 3.90 After giving away 2 points in Miami with seconds left, Detroit took it out on Atlanta 3-1. 3rd in the East, Detroit may have a thin roster, but they are not thin on talent.
11 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 8 -3 7-3-1 3.70 After 2 tight wins over Birmingham and El Paso Pittsburgh got owned in Tampa. They drop to 4th in the East and are not looking quite so confident.
12 New Mexico United 12 0 3-2-4 3.34 Game against Phoenix was postponed.
13 El Paso Locomotive 2 -11   3.22 Midweek El Paso was dominant in a ho-hum 1-0 win over SacRep. The weekend draw against OC was a display of sloppy attack and even sloppier defending. But hey, a 4-point week.
14 Sacramento Republic 14 0 4-3-3 2.57 The Republic looked toothless against the Locomotive even before the stupid red card earned by striker Douglas Martinez. Their only win in the last 5 was over the Baby Bulls.
15 San Diego Loyal 13 -2 6-3-2 2.56 San Diego has just 5 points from its last 5 games and is not looking as strong as in the early going. They were quite unconvincing in Edinburg.
16 Hartford Athletic 16 0 2-6-1 2.55 Game against Tulsa was postponed.
17 Oakland Roots 19 2 2-4-6 2.32 A desperately needed win over LA, but Oakland are still in 12th place in the West and looking very much a non-contender.
18 Birmingham Legion 15 -3 3-4-4 2.27 A 3-game scoreless streak. The Legion’s inability to find the back of the net is becoming a huge problem, especially against teams like the Lights who they should be able to handle easily.
19 LA Galaxy II 6 -13 4-6-2 1.76 Held without a shot on goal in a 0-5 pummeling in Memphis, Los Dos then lost 0-1 in Oakland and saw keeper Benny Diaz sent off. Not a good week.
20 FC Tulsa 21 1 4-7-0 1.56 Game against Hartford was postponed.
21 Phoenix Rising 20 -1 6-4-0 1.46 Game against New Mexico was postponed.
22 Las Vegas Lights 22 0 4-4-4 1.23 Were they lucky to come away from Birmingham with a point? Probably, but they did it without Danny Trejo or Cal Jennings.
23 Louisville City 3 -20 7-2-3 1.08 The last unbeaten pro soccer team in the US has lost its last two games to Los Dos and the Union. That will result in a massive drop in the rankings.
24 New York Red Bulls II 24 0 1-9-1 0.22 An unlucky own goal and some poor luck at the other end too sent New York to its 4th straight loss. Their only win this season was against Twonited.
25 Loudoun United 26 1 2-8-1 0.14 Loudoun went down a goal early to a high-octane Area Code FC attack and it didn’t get any better from there. 8 straight losses after a 2-0-1 start.
26 Charleston Battery 25 -1 1-8-1 -0.34 4 straight losses now for the Battery, who have just point since the opening weekend and the worst record in the league.
27 Atlanta United 2 27 0 2-8-0 -0.45 Twonited have now lost 5 straight games. Having a parent club beleaguered by injuries is not helping their cause at all. This week’s red card to Efrain Morales won’t improve the situation.

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