How it looks to close out the season

With the season now well into the final stretch and the Legion’s season very much on the line, we thought it would be useful to take a look at the team’s chances of making the playoffs. The Three Sparks are stuck in 11^th right now, but are only 3 points below the line. Realistically, it seems unlikely that the team can do any better than 8th; it is not inconceivable that a 7^th-place finish is in reach. 6^th might be a bit tougher.

For that reason we have listed below all 6 teams from 7^th down (Detroit City is 6th and only a point better than the Pittsburgh Riverhounds, for what that’s worth). We have listed every game each team has left to play. The opponents for away games are shown in italics. Opponents in green indicate where teams in this group are playing each other. Sacramento Republic is listed in red for Rhode Island because that is a Jägermeister Cup game and therefore not directly impacting the outcome. If Rhode Island wins that game they will of course have another game to fit into the schedule. Fixture compression is thus a potential issue for them.

SoS stands for Strength of Schedule and is simply the aggregate points of the team’s opponents (excluding SacRep in Rhode Island’s case).

The first thing to note then is that the Legion’s schedule is the 3^rd hardest of the 6. However, that includes playing the Charleston Battery on the final day of the season. But the 47 points they have accumulated may not mean very much if they are locked into their current 2^nd place. If they have nothing to play for they may well rest a few regular starters. The only thing they would have an interest in is their potential opponent in the first round of the playoffs, which could well be the Legion.

The Legion’s schedule could be considered even tougher given that the Tampa Bay Rowdies play one additional game. On the other hand, they have to play that additional game.

Indy Eleven have the toughest schedule, even taking into account that they have 9 games left. That will be down to 8 games after tonight. They play at the surging Hartford Athletic (6:30pm, ESPN Select).

There are 8 games on the schedule involving 2 members of this group. Only Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay have 2 such clashes; everyone else has 3.  That of course makes for a huge mess but also for a ton opportunity. They are all true 6-pointers. Ideally, each team will want draws in games they are not involved in, with both combatants dropping 2 points; second-best outcome would be for the lower team in the standings to win but those are so tightly packed that the benefit is minimal.

The Legion’s 3 such games are all against teams below the playoff line. That’s good in that it makes them clearly winnable. 2 of them are at home as well. On the other hand, the Legion has a poor record against low-ranking teams this year and it also means that ground made up on the teams above the playoff line will be limited.

Which means that the Three Sparks will need some help. Notably, Rhode Island plays the same 3 teams below the line as the Legion. They will all be hungry for points and could cause the Northeasterners some damage.

The other northeastern team could be helpful; in addition to the Indy game they also play Pittsburgh, Miami and Tampa Bay. Louisville City could be a wrecking ball in their chase for the Players’ Shield: they will play Rhode Island, Pittsburgh, Indy and Miami.

No question that it will be a tough end to the season. But it should be entertaining if all these teams show up.